If you’re a San Diego homeowner looking to cut down on rising utility bills or planning a full HVAC replacement, you’ve probably heard that heat pumps are the future of home comfort.
The short answer is yes — a heat pump can be up to three times more efficient than a traditional gas furnace in Southern California’s mild climate.
Because our region rarely experiences freezing temperatures, heat pumps handle both heating and cooling year-round, saving energy and improving comfort. Below, we’ll explain how they work, what they cost to operate, and why new 2025 building codes are pushing homeowners toward all-electric systems.
How Heat Pumps Work (and Why They Fit San Diego Homes)
Unlike furnaces that burn fuel to create heat, heat pumps transfer heat using electricity.
During the winter, they extract warmth from outdoor air and move it indoors. In the summer, the process reverses, keeping your home cool and comfortable.
This ability to move heat instead of creating it makes heat pumps highly efficient — often achieving 300% or more efficiency. That’s ideal for coastal and inland areas like Vista, Chula Vista, and El Cajon, where winter lows rarely drop below 45°F.
For most homeowners, a heat pump replaces both the furnace and air conditioner, reducing the number of systems to maintain and lowering total energy costs.
Comparing Heat Pumps vs. Gas Furnaces
| Feature | Heat Pump | Gas Furnace |
|---|---|---|
| Energy Source | Electricity | Natural Gas or Propane |
| Efficiency | Up to 300 % | 80–98 % AFUE |
| Cooling Function | Yes — acts as AC | No |
| Best Climate | Mild to Warm | Cold |
| Upfront Cost | Moderate to High | Lower |
| Operating Cost | Lower long-term | Higher |
In most San Diego homes, the heat pump provides both heating and cooling through one system — quieter, cleaner, and more energy-efficient.
Local Energy Costs: Electricity vs. Natural Gas
SDGE (Electricity)
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Off-Peak (9 PM – 4 PM): about $0.25 / kWh
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On-Peak (4 PM – 9 PM): about $0.49 / kWh
SoCalGas (Natural Gas)
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Procurement rate: about $0.32 / therm
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Delivered cost: typically $1.00 – $1.40 / therm
Because a heat pump multiplies every kilowatt of energy into roughly three kilowatts of heating or cooling, it delivers heat at a lower effective cost — especially during off-peak hours.
When Homeowners Run Their Systems
Most families in San Diego use:
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Air Conditioning: from 4 PM to 6 AM
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Heating: from 7 PM to 6 AM
That schedule overlaps with higher on-peak rates for only a few hours, while most operation happens at night when electricity is cheapest — ideal for efficient heat pump performance.
Calculating Your Cost Savings and ROI
14 SEER vs. 18 SEER vs. 21 SEER – What’s Worth It?
Assuming a 3-ton (36,000 BTU/h) system operating 1,000 hours per year (35% on-peak, 65% off-peak):
| Efficiency Rating | Estimated Annual Cooling Cost |
|---|---|
| 14 SEER | ≈ $868 / year |
| 18 SEER | ≈ $675 / year |
| 21 SEER | ≈ $579 / year |
Savings Compared to 14 SEER:
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18 SEER saves about $190–200 per year
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21 SEER saves about $280–300 per year
An 18 SEER upgrade typically costs about $1,500 more than a 14 SEER system and pays for itself in about 7–8 years, often faster with SDGE rebates or SoCalGas incentives.
A 21 SEER system offers premium comfort, quieter operation, and advanced humidity control for those prioritizing long-term value.
Daily Cost of Operation
Let’s calculate what it actually costs to run your HVAC system each day in San Diego.
Assumptions:
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3-ton system
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6 hours of cooling daily
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3 hours of heating daily
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On-peak rate: $0.49/kWh
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Off-peak rate: $0.25/kWh
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Gas: $1.20/therm
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Heat Pump COP: 3.0
| System Type | Cooling (6 h/day) | Heating (3 h/day) | Total Daily Cost |
|---|---|---|---|
| 14 SEER + Gas Furnace | $2.04 | $1.44 | ≈ $3.50 / day |
| 18 SEER Heat Pump | $1.56 | $0.83 | ≈ $2.40 / day |
| 21 SEER Heat Pump | $1.32 | $0.83 | ≈ $2.15 / day |
Typical savings: $1.00–$1.35 per day, or about $350–$500 per year — not counting rebate or maintenance savings.
Estimated Replacement Costs (Furnace to Heat Pump Conversion)
| Efficiency Level | Estimated Installed Cost Range |
|---|---|
| 14 SEER / 8.2 HSPF | $11,500 – $13,500 |
| 18 SEER / 9.5 HSPF | $13,500 – $15,800 |
| 21 SEER+ / Variable-Speed | $16,000 – $19,500 |
Included in Every Installation
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Outdoor condenser + indoor air handler
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Refrigerant line replacement or flush
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Ductwork redesign for airflow balance
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Smart thermostat integration
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Title 24 documentation and permit handling
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TECH Clean California rebate application
Possible Additional Costs
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Heat strips (5–10 kW) for auxiliary heat
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Electrical panel or wiring upgrades for newer breakers
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Permit fees ($300–$800 depending on the city)
These upgrades ensure your system is code-compliant, efficient, and future-ready.
2025 Code Changes in San Diego County
Starting in 2025, new HVAC regulations take effect across San Diego County:
Ultra-Low NOx Gas Furnaces
All new gas furnaces must meet strict UltraLow NOx emission standards to reduce air pollution. These systems cost more and are harder to source.
A2L Refrigerant Transition (R32, R454B)
All new HVAC equipment now uses mildly flammable A2L refrigerants such as R32 or R454B, replacing R410A.
These refrigerants require certified technicians and updated safety procedures.
Shift to All-Electric Systems
California’s 2025–2030 energy roadmap is phasing out natural gas in favor of all-electric homes.
Heat pumps will soon become the default system type for residential replacements and new builds.
Provision Heating & Air Conditioning is fully certified and equipped to install A2L refrigerant systems, UltraLow NOx furnaces, and high-efficiency heat pumps that meet all 2025 requirements.
Maintenance and Care
Every heat pump benefits from regular maintenance.
Our AC tune-up and maintenance services include refrigerant testing, airflow verification, and electrical inspection to keep your system efficient and safe.
For repairs or same-day service, our technicians handle AC repair and heat pump installations throughout San Diego County.
Ready to Upgrade Your Home Comfort?
Switching from a gas furnace to a high-efficiency heat pump gives you lower utility bills, cleaner air, and long-term compliance with California’s new energy codes.
Call Provision Heating & Air Conditioning at (760) 507-2705 to schedule your free in-home consultation.
We’ll design a system that fits your home, budget, and lifestyle — with full permit handling and rebate support.
Key Takeaways
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Heat pumps are up to 3× more efficient than gas furnaces in San Diego’s mild climate.
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Homeowners spend about $2–$2.50/day on energy vs. $3.50/day for older gas systems.
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Complete conversions cost $11,500–$19,500 on average.
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Homes may need heat strips, new breakers, and panel upgrades for compliance.
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2025 standards now require UltraLow NOx furnaces and A2L refrigerants.
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Provision HVAC (CSLB #1125408) is fully certified for these systems.
Trusted Brands & Certifications
- Carrier
- Bryant
- Bosch
- Goodman
- Lennox
- Trane
- NATE Certified
- EPA Certified
- TECH Clean California
- Licensed & Bonded
Provision Heating & Air Conditioning — your trusted local expert for high-efficiency heat pump replacements, ductwork upgrades, and smart thermostat installations across San Diego County and the Coachella Valley.